SPC AC 251943
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2008
VALID 252000Z - 261200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
....MID-ALTANTIC SEABOARD AND SRN NEW ENGLAND...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS. EAST OF THE LARGER TROUGH...THE RUC SUGGESTS A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY EXIST IN THE CAROLINAS EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS PRESENT IN CNTRL NC
WITH ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE IN ERN NC AND ERN VA. A MOIST AXIS EXISTS
ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WITH THE RUC INDICATING A POCKET OF INSTABILITY
WITH SBCAPE VALUES FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...THE WSR-88D
VWP IN WAKEFIELD VA NEAR THE INSTABILITY AXIS CURRENTLY SHOWS STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR OF ABOUT 30 KT. THIS COULD BE
ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WITH SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY
RESULT IN A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS WELL. THIS THREAT SHOULD
EXTEND WELL NWD ALONG AND EAST OF THE AXIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTO
SRN NEW ENGLAND.
..BROYLES.. 10/25/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
|
