SPC AC 030514
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1114 PM CST TUE DEC 02 2008
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
....UPPER TX CST NEWD INTO SRN AR/WRN LA...
MAJOR COLD TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SEWD INTO NRN PLAINS WITH
SEPARATE SRN S/W TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTRAL ROCKIES CROSSING SRN
PLAINS WED/WED NIGHT. E/W COLD FRONT NEB TO SRN WY CONTINUES SWD
REACHING NWRN OK TO NERN NM BY 12Z WED AND BY 12Z THU OFFSHORE TX.
A SLY FLOW OFF WRN GULF BASIN WILL SPREAD A MODIFIED MOISTURE RETURN
NEWD THRU ERN SRN PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF COLD
FRONT AND APPROACHING S/WV TROUGH. WARM SECTOR EXPECTED TO BE
CAPPED BY A MID LEVEL WARM LAYER MUCH OF DAYLIGHT
HOURS...EFFECTIVELY PRECLUDING CONVECTION UNTIL ARRIVAL OF THE COLD
FRONT AND THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND COOLING WITH THE S/WV TROUGH.
BY LATE AFTERNOON 50-60KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS
SRN PLAINS SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION ONCE CONVECTIVE
INITIATION CAN OCCUR. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM BETWEEN 21-00Z AS
COLD FRONT ENCOUNTERS THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. GIVEN
MLCAPES GENERALLY LESS THAN 800 J/KG...UPDRAFT STRENGTH WILL BE
TEMPERED. HOWEVER...SHEAR AND STRENGTH OF APPROACHING S/WV TROUGH
SUPPORTS LOW SEVERE WIND/HAIL PROBS THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
STORMS DEVELOP EWD THRU MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS.
..HALES.. 12/03/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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