SPC AC 161730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST WED JAN 16 2008
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
DOWNSTREAM OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC BLOCK...THE POLAR TROUGH
ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE U.S. IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AMPLIFIED
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL DIG FROM THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. AND...THIS IS PROGGED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO THE NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF A VIGOROUS IMPULSE
WHICH IS STILL EVOLVING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS. THE LEAD
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS BROADER SCALE RIDGING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AND MAY SUPPORT THE AMPLIFICATION OF A FRONTAL
WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
FARTHER WEST...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW DIGGING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY SPLIT OFF THE MAIN BELT OF
POLAR WESTERLIES...AND CONTINUE DIGGING THROUGH BAJA/THE
NORTHWESTERN MEXICAN PLATEAU. THE SYSTEM MAY SUPPORT INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BUT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANY WAVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN
WEAK THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
...SOUTHEASTERN STATES...
CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONCERNING
THE TIMING OF A REMNANT SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE...AND ASSOCIATED
WEAKENING FRONTAL WAVE...ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. BUT...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER BASED
DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE OPEN WATERS OF
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN ATLANTIC...THIS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE SEVERE THREAT...WHICH
APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE WITH THE GENERAL TENDENCY FOR WEAKENING WIND
FIELDS/VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
DESTABILIZATION ABOVE WARM FRONTAL INVERSION...FROM PARTS OF GEORGIA
INTO THE CAROLINAS. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. BUT...THESE ARE EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN AS THEY SPREAD INLAND ACROSS GULF COASTAL WATERS.
...TEXAS...
LOW-LEVEL WARMING/MOISTENING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION
ABOVE STABLE SURFACE LAYER ACROSS LOWER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
..KERR.. 01/16/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z
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