SPC AC 111645
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2008
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS CONUS GENERALLY SPLIT/ZONAL THRU THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. LOW AMPLITUDE SRN BRANCH S/WV'S TRACK FROM GULF ACROSS FL
AND ROCKIES INTO CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS. IN THE NRN STREAM STRONG TROF
EXITS THE NERN U.S EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH A WEAKER UPSTREAM
IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS NRN PLAINS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES.
OVERALL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE GENERALLY LACKING ACROSS THE
U.S. FOR ANY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE COMBINATION OF
RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD
OF NRN PLAINS TROUGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH MOVING E FROM UPR MS VALLEY. THE
GREATER LIKLIHOOD OF ANY STORMS SHOULD BEGIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS TROUGH TRACKS EWD TOWARD GREAT LAKES.
WHILE MOISTURE RETURN WILL COMMENCE SRN PLAINS WED NIGHT WITH A
30-40KT LLJ...ATTM DO NOT EXPECT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP
FOR AN ELEVATED THUNDER THREAT UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND MORE
LIKELY AFTER 12Z THU. THUS HAVE LOWERED THE FORECAST OF
THUNDER...THOUGH AN ISOLATED THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
THE FLAT TROUGH MOVING ACROSS FL LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO WORK
WITH. THUS HAVE ALSO LOWERED THE CHANCES OF THUNDER FOR S FL.
..HALES.. 03/11/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z
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