SPC AC 050514
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 AM CDT SAT APR 05 2008
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...FL...
SOMEWHAT SPLIT BUT BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE NOTED THROUGH THE
DAY2. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SEVERAL EMBEDDED IMPULSES WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE FL PENINSULA...MODULATING
DEEP CONVECTION AHEAD OF EACH FEATURE. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...SUFFICIENT FLOW WILL EXIST
AT MID LEVELS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LOOSELY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY WITH HIGHER INSTABILITY GULF OF MEXICO
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THAT APPROACH THE PENINSULA NEAR THE STALLED
SFC BOUNDARY. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR PERHAPS SOME HAIL ARE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.
...MID MS VALLEY TO NERN OK...
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL DRAW
MODIFIED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NNEWD ACROSS TX INTO MO AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT. WITH VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...H5 AOB MINUS
20C NORTH OF I-70...IT APPEARS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE ENHANCED
ALONG A NARROW AXIS FROM NERN OK INTO SERN IA AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
BY LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
...GREAT BASIN/CNTRL ROCKIES...
STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CNTRL
ROCKIES NORTH OF JET AXIS THAT SHOULD EXTEND FROM CNTRL CA...INTO
THE 4-CORNERS REGION. CONVECTION SHOULD CERTAINLY DEVELOP ALONG
THIS CORRIDOR WITH SCATTERED LIGHTING POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
UPDRAFTS.
..DARROW.. 04/05/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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