SPC AC 101730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MUCH OF GA THROUGH SC AND
SERN NC...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE SERN
STATES THROUGH A PORTION OF THE OH VALLEY...
...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ERN U.S. THIS PERIOD.
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL OCCLUDE OVER THE OH VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY
WITH TRAILING FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW OVER IND SWD THROUGH THE
TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS. THIS FRONT WILL ADVANCE EAST DURING THE DAY
AND OFFSHORE SUNDAY EVENING. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MODEL CONCENSUS IS THAT SECONDARY
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING IN EXIT REGION OF 100+ KT JET
MOVING THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH.
...CNTRL-ERN GULF COAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SE VA...
STORMS WILL BE ONGOING IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM PARTS OF THE
TN VALLEY SWD THROUGH GA AND AL EARLY SUNDAY. ACTIVITY WILL BE
EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW AND
BULK SHEAR WITH A 50+ KT WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET RESULTING IN LARGE LOW
LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE EVOLVED INTO MCSS SUNDAY
MORNING WITH ORGANIZED STRUCTURES INCLUDING LEWPS AND SUPERCELLS.
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE SIGNIFICANT WIND
DAMAGE...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES AND HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
EVOLUTION OF THE EARLY CONVECTION REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
PERSIST AS THEY ADVANCE EAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WITH A CONTINUING
SEVERE THREAT. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO
DESTABILIZE OUTSIDE OF AND IN WAKE OF ONGOING CONVECTION...AND
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
MIXED MODES WITH BOTH LINES AND SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY. LARGEST LOW
LEVEL HODOGRAPHS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY EXIST OVER THE ERN
CAROLINAS TO THE EAST OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND IN VICINITY OF
RETREATING WARM FRONT. ANY DISCRETE STORMS DEVELOPING IN THIS REGION
WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG TORNADOES IN SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST TROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING BEFORE THE ENDING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.
...ERN KY THROUGH SRN OH AND WV...
MOISTURE RETURN IN THIS REGION WILL BE MORE LIMITED. HOWEVER...AN
AXIS OF 50S DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY ADVECT NWD INTO THE OH VALLEY
ALONG BRANCH OF LOW LEVEL JET EAST OF OCCLUDED LOW. POCKET OF STEEP
850-500 MB LAPSE RATE ATTENDING THERMAL TROUGH AND POTENTIAL FOR
DIABATIC HEATING IN WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS.
CONDITIONAL THREAT WILL EXIST FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
..DIAL.. 05/10/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z
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