SPC AC 180549
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2008
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD...THOUGH SHORT-WAVE TROUGH/LOW WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH WRN CANADA/THE PAC NW THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...A
RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WHILE A LARGE TROUGH REMAINS
IN PLACE FROM THE ROCKIES EWD.
AT THE SURFACE...THE MAIN FEATURE WITH RESPECT TO THE CONVECTIVE
FORECAST WILL BE A WEAK LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE ESEWD
OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE MID MS/OH/TN
VALLEYS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
...MID MS VALLEY REGION...
MOISTURE RETURNING NWD S OF WEAK SURFACE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN SOME AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION FROM
SERN KS/NERN OK EWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THIS REGION -- PARTICULARLY INVOF THE MID MS VALLEY.
WITH WEAKLY-VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT INCREASING TO NWLY AT 50 TO 60
KT...FAST-MOVING STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY-DAMAGING GUSTS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY ACROSS
THIS AREA.
...ELSEWHERE...
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ERN ND SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER
MS VALLEY...AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING SHORT-WAVE FEATURE. WHILE FAST
NWLY FLOW ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL...IT APPEARS
ATTM THAT MINIMAL INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE APPRECIABLE SEVERE
THREAT. OTHER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE NRN ROCKIES SEWD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND S FL. HOWEVER...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THESE AREAS.
..GOSS.. 05/18/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
|
