Jun 5, 2008 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jun 5 17:31:36 UTC 2008
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20080605 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20080605 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability Legend Image
   SPC AC 051729
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1229 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2008
   
   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WI/FAR EASTERN
   IA/EASTERN MO/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IL/NORTHERN IND/SOUTHWEST LOWER
   MI...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN
   GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY WITH WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS ANTICIPATED
   ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OHIO/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS FRIDAY
   AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
   TORNADOES...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG.
   
   NEARLY STACKED/NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT
   NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST ON
   FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A 70-80 KT SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL JET AND A
   CONTINUALLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW /990-985 MB/. IN ASSOCIATION WITH
   THIS SURFACE LOW...PRIMARY SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
   SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES
   REGION...WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT LIKELY RETREATING
   WESTWARD ACROSS THE CORN BELT AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS IN
   RESPONSE TO ROCKIES LEE SIDE PRESSURE FALLS LATE IN THE PERIOD. A
   VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD
   THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES AMIDST A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE
   TRANSPORT REGIME.
   
   ...UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OZARKS/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
   STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF
   THE PERIOD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INCLUDING
   PORTIONS OF MN/WI/UPPER MI/IA/MO. DESTABILIZATION/STORM
   INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY ON THE EASTERN/SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
   ACTIVITY...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
   WITHIN A RATHER MOIST/UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER.
   WITH UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN PLACE IN MOST
   LOCALES...DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE/STRONG
   INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG WITHIN THE PRE-COLD
   FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. BENEATH THE STRONG MID/UPPER JET...STRONG LOW
   TO MID LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR BOTH
   QUASI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS/DEVELOPMENT OF BOWING STRUCTURES...WITH
   POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ESPECIALLY IN
   THE MODERATE RISK AREA THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
   
   THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST EXTENT OF AN APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
   MORE CONDITIONAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS/SOUTHERN
   PLAINS...OWING TO RISING UPPER HEIGHTS/LIMITED LARGE SCALE SUPPORT
   AND A RETREATING COLD FRONT AND MOIST/UNSTABLE SECTOR. WHILE THE
   SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE MORE CONDITIONAL/RELATIVELY MORE
   SCATTERED/ISOLATED IN NATURE...A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
   WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES WILL EXIST.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF NY/PA INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...
   DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WAA
   REGIME ACROSS PORTIONS OF NY/PA INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY.
   THE AIRMASS IN WAKE OF WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. OWING TO MODEST
   LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE
   PARTICULARLY STRONG /GENERALLY 30 KT OR LESS/...ALTHOUGH SOME
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE WARM FRONT IN A
   SOMEWHAT HIGHER SRH ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL
   BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FRIDAY
   AFTERNOON/EVENING.
   
   ...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
   BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO LIFT
   NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS PERIOD. A FEW
   STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS
   AND SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN INCREASINGLY STRONG VERTICAL
   SHEAR AND RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG.
   
   ..GUYER.. 06/05/2008
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z