Aug 23, 2008 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Aug 23 05:58:47 UTC 2008
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20080823 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20080823 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability Legend Image
   SPC AC 230530
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008
   
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...LOWER MS VALLEY...
   TROPICAL STORM FAY IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO
   MOVE SLOWLY WWD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF AL AND MS SUNDAY
   MOVING INTO SE LA SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINBANDS WILL LIKELY EXTEND NWD
   FROM THE CENTER INTO CNTRL AL AND CNTRL MS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY SHOW STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
   PROFILES AND LOW-LCL HEIGHTS SUGGESTING CONDITIONS WILL BE
   SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING STORMS WITH A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. THE
   GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES MAY EXIST IN THE LATE MORNING AND
   EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE REGION.
   
   ...CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH
   PLAINS SUNDAY WITH A LEE TROUGH IN PLACE FROM ERN WY SSEWD INTO ERN
   CO. MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY ALONG THIS SFC
   TROUGH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
   IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WY AND NERN CO MOVING EWD INTO
   INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE BY LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOW
   SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR RESULTING IN ABOUT 30 KT 0F 0-6 KM
   SHEAR. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM...STEEP LAPSE
   RATES AND THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED
   SEVERE THREAT WITH HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE
   BETTER ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 08/23/2008
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z