SPC AC 121658
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2008
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SE NM/WEST TX...
A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT
THE SFC...A MOIST AXIS SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS WEST TX WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP POCKETS
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE MOIST AXIS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE MOIST AXIS DURING THE
AFTERNOON SPREADING NWD ACROSS WEST TX DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS
THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS WEST TX.
AT MID-LEVELS...A 60 TO 80 KT JET WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS WITH THE RIGHT EXIT REGION SPREADING ACROSS ERN NM
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO CREATE MODERATE TO
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SEVERE
STORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE DEVELOPMENT OF
INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE STRONGEST VERTICAL
SHEAR SUGGESTING THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL IN NATURE. A FEW
STRONG WIND GUSTS OR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE
MULTICELLS.
..BROYLES.. 10/12/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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