SPC AC 200559
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2008
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW MOVES SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
AND NORTHEAST CONUS...A SECOND FEATURE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN/DIG
SEWD OUT OF THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS LATE.
AS THIS FEATURE DIGS SEWD...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR IN RESPONSE. THE LOW SHOULD INITIALLY DEEPEN OVER ERN CO
ALONG THE REMNANT BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND THEN MOVE EWD INTO
CENTRAL/ERN KS LATE. AS THIS OCCURS...COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO SURGE
SWD ACROSS KS/NWRN OK AND ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
...ERN CO AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES EWD INTO KS/OK...
A MODESTLY-MOIST/CAPPED WARM SECTOR IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OVER ERN CO. WHILE
ANTICIPATED WIND FIELD -- FEATURING FLOW VEERING/INCREASING WITH
HEIGHT FROM SLY AT THE SURFACE TO WLY AT NEAR 30 KT AT MID LEVELS --
WOULD SUPPORT ROTATION WITH ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFT...IT APPEARS ATTM
THAT FEW -- IF ANY -- STORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH PEAK HEATING.
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL EXIST DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AS QG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. GREATEST STORM
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN E AND NE OF THE SURFACE LOW -- NEAR AND N OF
THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT. STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INVOF
THE COLD FRONT -- THOUGH EVEN HERE DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR TO THE COOL
SIDE OF THE FRONT. THUS...WITH MOST -- IF NOT ALL -- CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO BE ELEVATED...MAIN THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE HAIL. WITH
OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY LIKELY TO LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY...HAIL
MAY REMAIN PRIMARILY SUB-SEVERE. THUS -- WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5%
SEVERE PROBABILITY THIS FORECAST.
..GOSS.. 10/20/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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