SPC AC 110717
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF NY SWWD TO THE TN
VLY...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGELY ZONAL FLOW WILL BUCKLE AS THE STRONG UPR TROUGH TRANSLATES
THROUGH ONTARIO AND GRTLKS REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. ASSOCD COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE SEWD INTO NY...CNTRL APLCNS AND MID-SOUTH DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY. TAIL-END OF THE FRONT WILL SETTLE MORE SLOWLY SWD
THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS...LIKELY AUGMENTED BY TSTM OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES.
...NY SWWD INTO THE CNTRL APLCNS AND LWR TN VLY...
LOW-LVL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND WEST OF THE APLCN CREST ON SUNDAY WITH UPR
60S TO LWR 70S COMMON. A BROAD BAND OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING
EARLY SUNDAY UPSTREAM OVER SRN ONTARIO SWWD TO THE MID-SOUTH. IF
DEBRIS CLOUDS DO NOT INTERFERE WITH AFTN HEATING...A ZONE
IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT AND W OF THE APLCN CREST SHOULD BECOME
MODESTLY UNSTABLE...CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK CINH/MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES...BUT HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS.
SLOW INTENSIFICATION OF THE MORNING STORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS
OUTFLOW AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING SERVE AS LOW-LVL BOUNDARIES.
STRONGER HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FROM THE MID-OH VLY SWWD TO
THE TN VLY...BUT STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR...OWING TO APCH OF THE UPR
TROUGH...WILL EVOLVE ACROSS PA INTO NY. INCREASING WSW
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALONG SE FRINGE OF THE TROUGH MAY YIELD LINE
SEGMENTS THAT ORGANIZE INTO WEAK BOW STRUCTURES GIVING LOCAL DMGG
WIND GUSTS ALONG NRN EXTENTS OF THE SLGT RISK. OTHERWISE...FARTHER
S IN THE WEAKER SHEAR/HIGHER CAPE ENVIRONMENT AND ALONG THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH...DIURNALLY ENHANCED MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF WET MICROBURSTS OVER THE TN VLY/MID-SOUTH.
..RACY.. 07/11/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z
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