Aug 31, 2008 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sun Aug 31 07:28:43 UTC 2008
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20080831 0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20080831 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability Legend Image
   SPC AC 310726
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0226 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008
   
   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF LA/MS/AR...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRANSITIONING
   EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE DAKOTAS/MN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ON
   TUESDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SPREADING
   EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS.
   REMNANTS OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE
   GULF COAST REGION/ARKLATEX VICINITY AS AN UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS OVER
   THE OHIO VALLEY/APPALACHIANS.
   
   ...ARKLATEX/MID-SOUTH/CENTRAL GULF COAST...
   EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON MONDAY...HURRICANE GUSTAV SHOULD MOVE
   INLAND/SLOWLY WEAKEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION ON
   TUESDAY. REFERENCE NHC GUIDANCE FOR THE LATEST FORECAST DETAILS.
   ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE TIMING/POSITIONING OF
   GUSTAV AS IT MOVES INLAND...AN ENVELOPE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL
   WINDS/SRH WILL EXIST ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF GUSTAV TUESDAY.
   AMIDST A VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH 70-75 F
   DEWPOINTS...TORNADOES /AND CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE/ WILL
   BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY...SEEMINGLY MOST LIKELY AT THIS TIME
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF MS/LA/AR. WHILE ISOLATED TORNADOES/WIND DAMAGE
   WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...THE GREATEST RISK SHOULD
   OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS INSOLATION BOOSTS NEAR-SURFACE
   CAPE/UPDRAFT VIGOR.
   
   ...UPPER MIDWEST...
   AS UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT MAKES A STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESSION
   ACROSS THE REGION...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD BE COMMON ALONG
   THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT
   SOME TSTM UPSWING MAY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER HEATS/DESTABILIZES. WITH A LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE LIKELY OWING
   TO THE FRONTAL FORCING...POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/MODEST
   PREFRONTAL INSTABILITY /1000 J PER KG OR LESS MLCAPE/ AND
   FRONT-LAGGING MAXIMUM SHEAR WILL TEND TO LIMIT STRONG STORM
   VIGOR/LONGEVITY. WHILE A MARGINAL SEVERE WIND/HAIL RISK WILL EXIST
   WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS...ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
   
   ..GUYER.. 08/31/2008
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z