SPC AC 110729
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY DAY 3 -- PARTICULARLY WITH
RESPECT TO THE HANDLING OF HURRICANE IKE. WITH A STRENGTHENING
UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CONUS AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN/MOVE SEWD...FRONTAL
POSITION AND TIMING IS TO SOME DEGREE TIED TO THE EVOLUTION OF IKE
WITH TIME. WITH THE NAM...GFS...NAMKF...AND ECMWF INDICATING AN
84-HOUR POSITION OF IKE ANYWHERE WITHIN AN ENVELOPE FROM THE LOWER
OH VALLEY TO NRN MEXICO...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW THIS FORECAST.
...OH VALLEY SWWD INTO TX/OK...
WILL INTRODUCE A LARGE LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT THIS PERIOD --
EXTENDING FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE SRN PLAINS...TO COVER SEVERE
POTENTIAL BOTH INVOF THE SURFACE FRONT...AND NEAR THE CIRCULATION OF
IKE.
ATTM...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A LOW PROBABILITY TORNADO THREAT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE ERN HEMISPHERE OF IKE...AND THAT MODEST
INSTABILITY/SHEAR INVOF FROM COULD ALSO SUPPORT ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. AGAIN -- GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WILL NOT ATTEMPT
ANY FURTHER FORECAST RESOLUTION ATTM.
..GOSS.. 09/11/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
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