SPC AC 060701
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0201 AM CDT MON OCT 06 2008
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SERN STATES...
UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE INTO THE SERN STATES WEDNESDAY. ESELY LOW
LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FROM ERN U.S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIMIT
NWD RETURN OF HIGHER QUALITY GULF MOISTURE THAT SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED TO SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT ALONG THE GULF COASTAL REGION.
FARTHER NORTH AN AXIS OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH LOW 60S
DEWPOINTS WILL PERSIST EAST OF OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THE CNTRL GULF
COASTAL STATES NWD INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEY.
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
ONGOING CONVECTION WITHIN ZONE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT EAST OF UPPER
TROUGH. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION WILL BE ALONG THE
GULF COASTAL STATES WHERE RICHER MOISTURE WILL EXIST...BUT WILL
DEPEND UPON EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. BULK SHEAR OF 30-35
KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT
FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES...BUT ANY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS
HIGHLY CONDITIONAL UPON THE EVOLUTION OF EARLY CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES APPEAR WARRANTED.
..DIAL.. 10/06/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
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