SPC AC 100813
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 AM CST MON NOV 10 2008
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TX AND THE LOWER MS
VALLEY WEDNESDAY. AN IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD OUT OF UPPER
TROUGH BASE THROUGH THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS. THIS WILL PROVIDE
IMPETUS FOR A COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SE TX.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM FL THROUGH SRN LA...BUT NWD
ADVANCE OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE LIMITED BY WWD EXTENTION OF MID
ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE.
...TX COASTAL AREAS...
SMALL WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN INLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW STORMS
WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL MAY BE IN PROGRESS WITHIN ZONE OF STRONGER
FORCING OVER SE TX ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING IMPULSE. POTENTIAL
FOR DESTABILIZATION WILL EXIST FARTHER SW ALONG THE TX COAST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...BUT UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS REGARDING WHETHER STORMS
WILL REDEVELOP BEFORE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. IF FRONT IS SLOWER TO
MOVE OFFSHORE...THEN ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF
HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING ALOFT WHERE BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
GIVEN THE CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THE THREAT WILL INTRODUCE 5% SEVERE
PROBABILITIES...BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK
IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
...NWRN GULF COASTAL AREA...
GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS LA IN RESPONSE TO
EJECTING IMPULSE. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE RAPIDLY EJECTS NEWD AWAY
FROM THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE DAY. ESELY LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES
OVER THE SERN U.S. IN ASSOCIATION WITH WWD EXTENSION OF SURFACE
RIDGE WILL LIKELY LIMIT NWD RETURN OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
WHILE SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY EXIST IN THE SMALL WARM
SECTOR OVER PARTS OF LA AND SRN MS WHERE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
BE PRESENT...DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL IN THIS REGION WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN LIMITED. WILL INTRODUCE LOW PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME BUT
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
..DIAL.. 11/10/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
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