SPC AC 061611
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1011 AM CST TUE JAN 06 2009
VALID 061630Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST
REGION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP...FULL LATITUDE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE NORTHERN TO SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. ONE STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGER TROUGH ACROSS TX.
THIS FEATURE WILL AFFECT THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST REGION
LATER TODAY AND PROVIDE A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE FRONT STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL
LA INTO CENTRAL MS/AL...THEN NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER.
THE AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOISTEN AND
SLOWLY DESTABILIZE WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 500-1000 J/KG. INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT BY
AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT. THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE WEAK...LIMITING
UPDRAFT STRENGTH. HOWEVER...INCREASING LOW/MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS
WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND
A RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THOSE STORMS THAT CAN REMAIN ROOTED IN THE SURFACE
AIRMASS.
OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION MAY BECOME MORE LINEARLY ORIENTED AS PRIMARY
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS MAY INCREASE THE RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS AFTER 03Z OVER PARTS OF AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE.
..HART.. 01/06/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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