Jan 8, 2009 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jan 8 05:50:16 UTC 2009
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20090108 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20090108 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20090108 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20090108 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 080546
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1146 PM CST WED JAN 07 2009
   
   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER AIR PATTERN -- DOMINATED INITIALLY BY PRONOUNCED RIDGING OVER
   WRN STATES AND ERN CONUS TROUGH -- IS FCST TO DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT
   ACROSS CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD.  STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- EVIDENT IN
   MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NE PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 135W-140W AS
   OF 8/05Z -- IS FCST TO MOVE INLAND WA/ORE/NRN CA DURING FIRST FEW
   HOURS OF PERIOD...THEN EWD OVER NRN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN REGIONS.
    BY 9/12Z...TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND FROM ANCHORING VORTICITY MAX -- AND
   POSSIBLY NEARLY CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER ND -- SWWD ACROSS UT.  BROAD
   AREA OF LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE OVER CENTRAL
   PLAINS...BY END OF PERIOD.  ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT
   REGIME SHOULD BE QUITE STG...BUT TOO DRY TO SUPPORT GEN THUNDER
   POTENTIAL DURING THIS PERIOD.
   
   TSTMS AHEAD OF ATLANTIC SEABOARD TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP/REMAIN
   OFFSHORE WHERE RELATIVELY WARM GULF STREAM WATERS ENHANCE
   POSTFRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE AND STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO
   SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION.
   
   ...INLAND PACIFIC NW TOWARD NRN ROCKIES...
   AS HEIGHT FALLS AND DPVA ALOFT SPREAD EWD ACROSS REGION IN ADVANCE
   OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH...COLLOCATED POCKETS OF AT LEAST MRGL
   LOW-MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
   THUNDER...MAINLY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.  BUOYANCY WILL BE
   LIMITED BY COOLNESS OF SFC TEMPS...HOWEVER COMPENSATING COLD AIR
   ALOFT IN FCST SOUNDINGS SHIFTS ENTIRE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE LEFTWARD
   ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POCKETS OF MLCAPE
   TO NEAR 200 J/KG.  ONLY SLGT ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR-SFC THETAE ARE
   NEEDED TO MOVE BUOYANT PROFILE UP AND DOWN ON SOUNDINGS...AND INTO
   OR OUT OF IDEAL THERMAL ICING ZONES FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION.  WHILE
   THUNDER POTENTIAL APPEARS MRGL ATTM...PRIND PROBABILITIES REMAIN
   VERY NEAR 10 PERCENT OVER OUTLOOKED AREA.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 01/08/2009
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z