Jan 21, 2009 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jan 21 16:25:12 UTC 2009
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20090121 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20090121 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20090121 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20090121 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 211621
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1021 AM CST WED JAN 21 2009
   
   VALID 211630Z - 221200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SRN CA/AZ AREA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...
   A MID LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED NEAR 28 N AND 125 W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
   SLOWLY ENEWD TOWARD SRN CA/NRN BAJA THROUGH TOMORROW.  REGIONAL 12Z
   SOUNDINGS ACROSS CA/AZ SHOW PRELIMINARY MOISTENING AROUND 700 MB AND
   POTENTIALLY VERY WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE 700-400 MB LAYER DOWNSTREAM
   FROM THIS ERN PAC TROUGH.  HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
   BASED IN THE MID LEVELS TODAY WILL BE LIMITED BY AT BEST WEAK ASCENT
   AND LITTLE IMMEDIATE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION.  THE
   POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SRN CA COAST WILL
   INCREASE SOME VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD /BY 09-12Z/ AS A PLUME OF
   RICHER PW VALUES NEAR 1.25 INCHES OVERSPREADS SRN CA AND RESULTS IN
   SOMEWHAT GREATER INSTABILITY BASED CLOSER TO THE GROUND.
   
   ..THOMPSON.. 01/21/2009
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z