Feb 16, 2009 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Feb 16 16:10:18 UTC 2009
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20090216 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20090216 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20090216 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20090216 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 161605
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1005 AM CST MON FEB 16 2009
   
   VALID 161630Z - 171200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN CA COASTAL VALLEYS...
   
   STRONG JET MAX THAT HAS ROTATED AROUND COLD LOW OFF NRN CA COAST
   WILL BE APPROACHING SRN CA COAST THIS AFTN.  VERY STRONG LOW/MID
   LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE COASTAL SRN
   CA...ENHANCED BY FORCED TERRAIN BACKING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
   
   THE VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY INLAND HAS INHIBITED DEVELOPMENT OF
   MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION THUS FAR. HOWEVER AS DEWPOINTS RISE A
   LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON COASTAL AREAS AND UPPER LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
   ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING JET MAX STEEPENS LAPSE RATES TO GREATER
   THAN 7C/KM...SBCAPE OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG COULD DEVELOP COASTAL
   AREAS.
   
   THE MORE FRONTAL TYPE BAND OF PCPN NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS LA BASIN
   EVEN WITH ONLY SHALLOW CONVECTION HAS HAD BEEN CHARACTERIZED BY LOW
   LEVEL SHEAR COUPLETS OVER THE WATER WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
   MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IS A LITTLE GREATER.  ADDITIONAL POST-FRONTAL
   MORE CONVECTIVE BANDS/ELEMENTS SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE THRU THE
   AFTERNOON WITH A LITTLE GREATER THREAT OF WATERSPOUTS AND
   FUNNELS/BRIEF TORNADO INLAND COASTAL AREAS...ASSOCIATED WITH
   POSSIBLE MINI SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.
   
   BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
   UPPER JET MAX MOVES ACROSS SRN CA...RELAXING THE SHEAR AND THREAT OF
   SEVERE STORMS ALTHOUGH SOME HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY GOOD
   UPDRAFT THRU THE DAY GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES.
   
   ..HALES.. 02/16/2009
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z