Mar 1, 2009 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Mar 1 05:53:22 UTC 2009
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20090301 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20090301 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20090301 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20090301 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 010549
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1149 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2009
   
   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   VERY STRONG STORM SYSTEM ALOFT -- PROGGED TO BE CENTERED OVER AL AT
   THE START OF THE PERIOD...WILL MOVE ENEWD/NEWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
   U.S. REACHING ERN NC/ERN VA LATE.  AS THIS OCCURS...AN ASSOCIATED
   SURFACE LOW  INVOF GA COAST EARLY SHOULD SHIFT QUICKLY NNEWD ALONG
   THE ATLANTIC COAST...REACHING COASTAL NC BY 02/00Z.  THE TRAILING
   COLD FRONT MOVING SWD THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS FL SHOULD CLEAR THE
   PENINSULA/KEYS BY LATE AFTERNOON...ENDING THE CONVECTIVE THREAT
   ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
   
   AS THIS STRONG STORM SYSTEM CROSSES THE SOUTHEAST...A LARGER-SCALE
   AMPLIFICATION IN THE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST.  AS A TROUGH OVER
   ERN CANADA PHASES WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FEATURE RESULTING IN A
   LARGE/SHARP LONGER-WAVE FEATURE...A RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY NWD ACROSS
   THE U.S. AND CANADIAN ROCKIES AHEAD OF A SECOND LARGE TROUGH
   CROSSING THE ERN PACIFIC AND APPROACHING WRN NOAM.  CONVECTION WILL
   AFFECT THE W COAST STATES IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT
   OTHERWISE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER IS FORECAST ACROSS A LARGE
   PORTION OF THE INTERIOR CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
   
   ...COASTAL PORTIONS OF GA AND THE CAROLINAS...
   A NARROW ZONE OF AMPLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT STRONGER
   CONVECTION WILL SHIFT NEWD ALONG THE SERN U.S. ATLANTIC
   COAST...IMMEDIATELY E/NE OF A SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO CROSS THIS
   REGION.  ATTM...QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO WHETHER THIS LOW -- AND
   ASSOCIATED WARM SECTOR -- WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OR POSSIBLY JUST
   INLAND.  WITH BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE NERN QUADRANT OF THIS LOW
   BENEATH STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT...SHEAR WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
   ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS.  IF THE WARM SECTOR -- AND AMPLE
   INSTABILITY -- CAN REMAIN INLAND ACROSS COASTAL GA AND THE
   CAROLINAS...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE STORM/TORNADO POTENTIAL WOULD
   EXIST.  ATTM HOWEVER...WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE MORE FAVORABLE
   AIRMASS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE -- PARTICULARLY AFTER THE FIRST COUPLE OF
   HOURS OF THE PERIOD -- WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITY
   ACROSS A NARROW SLIVER OF THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST.
   
   ...SERN FL...
   WEAK LAPSE RATES/LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR SHOULD
   CHARACTERIZE THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS FL AHEAD OF THE SEWD-MOVING
   FRONT.  WHILE SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY
   THE FRONT THROUGH THE MORNING...DEEPER CONVECTION/MORE WIDESPREAD
   THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVOLVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
   AS IT MOVES INTO SERN FL.  THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE
   LIMITED...A STRONGER GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BEFORE
   CONVECTION MOVES OFFSHORE LATE IN THE DAY.
   
   ..GOSS.. 03/01/2009
   
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