Mar 4, 2009 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Mar 4 19:20:29 UTC 2009
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20090304 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20090304 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20090304 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20090304 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 041916
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0116 PM CST WED MAR 04 2009
   
   VALID 042000Z - 051200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...CA/ORE COASTS TO NRN HIGH PLAINS...
   
   SURFACE LOW OVER ERN ID AS OF 18Z WILL DEVELOP EWD AND CONSOLIDATE
   WITH DEEPENING LEE CYCLONE OVER ERN WY.  ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
   CONCURRENTLY PROGRESS EWD THROUGH WRN/CNTRL UT AND MOST OF NV. 
   WHILE AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE DRY ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT...DAYTIME
   HEATING COUPLED WITH RATHER COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES /AROUND 20 C
   AT 500 MB/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LAPSE RATES
   AND WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.  FRONTAL FORCING IN CONJUNCTION
   WITH TERRAIN EFFECTS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO FOSTER ISOLATED TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
   
   FARTHER TO THE W...MIDLEVEL COLD POOL /-26 TO -32 C AT 500 MB/ ON
   CYCLONIC SIDE OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL JETS IS LARGELY CONTRIBUTING TO
   THE FORMATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES WITHIN POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS OVER
   NRN/CNTRL CA.  LATE MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IS ALREADY SHOWING
   SHALLOW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM NEAR AND S OF SFO TO THE
   SACRAMENTO AND SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS.  FURTHER BOUNDARY LAYER
   HEATING/DESTABILIZATION SHOULD EVENTUALLY SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
   SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SAME GENERAL AREAS.  A FEW OF THE
   MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SOME SMALL HAIL.  NO SEVERE
   WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
   
   ..MEAD.. 03/04/2009
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z