SPC AC 091625
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT MON MAR 09 2009
VALID 091630Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF TX INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY...
...OK/KS THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES
TODAY...WHILE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRACK FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. ONE FEATURE IS NOW
EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS...AND APPEARS TO
BE HELPING TO MAINTAIN A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
OK. THESE STORMS ARE APPROACHING THE WESTERN EDGE OF RAPIDLY
RETURNING GULF MOISTURE. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR INTENSIFICATION BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS STORMS MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OK AND SOUTHERN KS.
PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SWOMCD FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
...OK/KS INTO MID MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...
BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...A RELATIVELY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OK AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY CLIMBING
THROUGH THE 50S IN THIS REGION AND VISIBLE SATELLITE SUGGESTS SOME
BROKEN SUNSHINE IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...70-80 KT MID
LEVEL WINDS AND ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NM IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION HELPING TO INITIATE NEW
THUNDERSTORMS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS WILL INTENSIFY
OVER WEST-CENTRAL OK AND SOUTHERN KS DURING THE 20-23Z PERIOD AND
TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
FOR SUPERCELLS THROUGHOUT THIS AREA. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
/LOW LCL VALUES AND CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION/ WILL ENHANCE THE RISK
OF TORNADOES IN MORE PERSISTENT CELLS THIS EVENING ROUGHLY ALONG AN
AXIS FROM OKC - TUL - SGF. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD AS FAR EASTWARD AS
SOUTH-CENTRAL IL BY TUE MORNING WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF LOCALLY
SEVERE STORMS.
..HART/SMITH.. 03/09/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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