SPC AC 091945
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 PM CDT MON MAR 09 2009
VALID 092000Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID-MS VLY SWWD INTO
THE SRN PLNS...
...OK/KS INTO MO...
NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO PREV FCST.
MODELS ARE UNDERESTIMATING LLVL MOISTURE/TEMPERATURE PROFILES THIS
AFTN. TEMPS WARMING WELL INTO THE 70S WITH SFC DEW POINTS UPR
50S/NEAR 60 DEG F ARE COMMON ALONG/S OF KS BORDER AT 19Z. THIS WAS
RESULTING IN HIGHER BUOYANCY POTENTIAL AND WEAKER CINH.
SATL/PROFILERS SUGGEST NEXT IMPULSE WAS EJECTING INTO THE SPLNS OF W
TX EARLY THIS AFTN. AS THIS FEATURE EJECTS NEWD...THE BOUNDARY
PRESENT FROM NEAR KPNC SWWD INTO SWRN OK SHOULD STRENGTHEN/DEEPEN.
ALL MODELS SUGGEST SFC-BASED INITIATION IN THIS CORRIDOR BY LATE
AFTN. STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT AND 2-6KM SHEAR
ORIENTED NEARLY PERPENDICULAR WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL FAVOR DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS.
TORNADO RISK WILL BE MAXIMIZED THIS EVENING IN A CORRIDOR ALONG/N OF
I-44 FROM CNTRL/NERN OK INTO SERN KS AND SWRN MO. MESO-LOW HAS
FORMED NEAR SEILING OK AND WILL LIKELY TRACK ENE ALONG NRN EDGE OF
MORE ROBUST LLVL THETA-E. ENHANCED AND SLIGHTLY BACKED LLVL FLOW
ATTENDANT TO THIS FEATURE WILL BOOST SRH AND COUPLED WITH EVENING
LOWERING OF THE LCL MAY RESULT IN A FEW TORNADOES. /RACY
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2009/
...OK/KS INTO MID MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...
BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...A RELATIVELY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OK AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY CLIMBING
THROUGH THE 50S IN THIS REGION AND VISIBLE SATELLITE SUGGESTS SOME
BROKEN SUNSHINE IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...70-80 KT MID
LEVEL WINDS AND ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NM IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION HELPING TO INITIATE NEW
THUNDERSTORMS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS WILL INTENSIFY
OVER WEST-CENTRAL OK AND SOUTHERN KS DURING THE 20-23Z PERIOD AND
TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
FOR SUPERCELLS THROUGHOUT THIS AREA. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/LOW LCL VALUES AND CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION/ WILL ENHANCE
THE RISK OF TORNADOES IN MORE PERSISTENT CELLS THIS EVENING ROUGHLY
ALONG AN AXIS FROM OKC - TUL - SGF. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD AS FAR
EASTWARD AS SOUTH-CENTRAL IL BY TUE MORNING WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS. /HART
..RACY/HART/SMITH.. 03/09/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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