The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms expected over parts of southern missouri and northern arkansas this morning through mid day.... Please read the latest public statement about this event.
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SPC AC 081209 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0709 AM CDT FRI MAY 08 2009 VALID 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MO AND NORTHERN AR... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EAST TX INTO THE OH VALLEY... ...DERECHO IN PROGRESS THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN AR... ...MID MS VALLEY... MATURE BOW ECHO NOW OVER SOUTHWEST MO IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AND TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MO AND NORTHERN AR THROUGH THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE BEING REPORTED WITH THIS BOW...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT LEAST AS FAR EAST AS THE MS RIVER. FROM THERE EASTWARD...FORECAST IS MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO EFFECTS OF NOCTURNAL MCS THAT TRACKED ACROSS KY/TN OVERNIGHT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN ENHANCED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES AS MO CONVECTIVE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN KY/TN...WHERE LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES MAY BE STRONGER. ...TX/OK/AR/LA THIS AFTERNOON... STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND AMPLE MOISTURE ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM EASTERN OK INTO NORTH TX. MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS AXIS...BUT A RATHER STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY PERSIST. A COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FROM WEST OF DFW TO FSM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EFFECTIVE SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THAT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER OK PORTION OF AREA. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS. ...VA/NC... REMNANTS OF MCS OVER KY/TN WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS NC/VA THIS AFTERNOON. A MOIST AND SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS MAY RESULT IN SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE IN A FEW STORMS. AT THIS TIME...ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND WEAKER INSTABILITY THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. ...IA/IL... A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS MORNING...AND WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND AFFECT IA THIS AFTERNOON. RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ..HART/HURLBUT.. 05/08/2009 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z