Jun 15, 2009 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jun 15 16:19:25 UTC 2009
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20090615 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20090615 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20090615 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20090615 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 151614
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1114 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2009
   
   VALID 151630Z - 161200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
   ACROSS MUCH OF KS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS...ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY...INTO THE CAROLINAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   OVERALL TODAYS CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AS
   IMPULSES CONTINUE TO TRACK OUT OF SWRN TROUGH ACROSS PLAINS AND MS
   VALLEY. LARGE POOL OF VERY MOIST AND POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE AIR
   MASS RESIDES FROM CENTRAL PLAINS EWD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
   
   ...CENTRAL PLAINS...
   SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY SWRN KS WILL DEEPEN SOME THIS AFTERNOON AND
   MOVE EWD ALONG OK/KS BORDER THIS EVENING. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
   WILL BE MAINTAINED NORTH OF LOW ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN KS. 
   MEANWHILE...STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR WEST OF THE DRYLINE NEAR THE
   SWRN KS/CO BORDER YIELDING AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000
   J/KG.  THE CAPPING INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO BE ELIMINATED BY
   MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT LIKELY.  STORMS WILL MOVE INTO A VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL
   AIRMASS WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO PROMOTE
   SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES.  BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS AND SUFFICIENT
   LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO POSE A RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES DURING THE
   EARLY EVENING.  HOWEVER...THE MAIN THREATS APPEAR TO BE VERY LARGE
   HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS ORGANIZE AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
   MUCH OF KS OVERNIGHT. ONE OR MORE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS/S ARE
   LIKELY WITH ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.
   
   ...MO/AR/IL/KY/TN...
   WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING THIS MORNING
   ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN MO INTO LWR OH VALLEY.  THESE
   STORMS ARE IN A REGION OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION. S
   OF THE PCPN THE WARM SECTOR IS VERY MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS INTO MID
   70S AND ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED.  MLCAPES AOA 3000 J/KG IN WARM SECTOR
   ALONG WITH 30-40KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...WILL SUPPORT SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
   A COLD POOL COULD ORGANIZE ACROSS MID MS VALLEY AND TRACK E/SEWD
   WITH MORE OF AN ORGANIZED WIND THREAT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
   SUPERCELLS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT ENHANCING
   SEVERE THREAT INCLUDING ISOLATED TORNADOES.
   
   ..WESTERN SD/NEB...
   SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE
   BLACK HILLS SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN NEB AND NERN CO.  STEEP LOW/MID
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 25-40 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL PROMOTE
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES.
   
   
   ...CAROLINAS...
   A BROAD AREA OF 30-35 KNOT WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE PRESENT
   TODAY OVER THE CAROLINAS.  DESPITE WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS...THIS WILL
   PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELL
   STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THIS AFTERNOON.
   STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
   HEATING.
   
   ...NY/PA/VT/MA/CT...
   COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
   NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL PROVIDE RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF NY/PA AND WESTERN NEW
   ENGLAND.  LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOP LATE THIS
   MORNING AND A FEW CELLS COULD BECOME STRONG/SEVERE WITH A RISK OF
   HAIL AND GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS.  SEVERE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
   REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..HALES/HURLBUT.. 06/15/2009
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z