SPC AC 070050
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 PM CDT TUE OCT 06 2009
VALID 070100Z - 071200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...EAST-CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
AHEAD OF A SOUTHEAST ADVANCING COLD FRONT...SOME SURFACE/NEAR
SURFACE BASED TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITHIN A RATHER
MOIST PREFRONTAL AIRMASS /70-75F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN LA AND MS/AL...AND PERHAPS ADJACENT WESTERN GA/SOUTHEAST
TN. WHILE THE 00Z OBSERVED RAOBS FROM SHREVEPORT/JACKSON MS WERE
INDICATIVE OF 3000+ J/KG OF MLCAPE...WITH THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUING TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION...CONVECTIVE VIGOR SHOULD
REMAIN LIMITED GIVEN MEAGER LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/WARM MID
LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. NONETHELESS...RESIDUALLY STRONG /BUT
GRADUALLY WEAKENING/ DEEP LAYER/LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE SUGGESTIVE
A NON-ZERO POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO
TONIGHT.
...TX TO ARKLATEX...
SURFACE REFLECTION OF SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. SOME BRIEF TEMPORAL/SPATIAL
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SURFACE BASED STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS REMAINS
ACROSS THE TX BIG BEND VICINITY...BUT OTHERWISE ELEVATED STORMS
WITHIN THE POST-SURFACE FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
SCENARIO. IN ADDITION TO ONGOING TSTMS ACROSS NORTH TX/SOUTHEAST OK
TO THE ARKLATEX...ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWEST TX/SOUTHEAST NM AS A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES
UPON THE ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE. IN SPITE OF MODERATE ELEVATED
CAPE AS SAMPLED BY THE 00Z OBSERVED RAOB FROM FORT WORTH /1400 J PER
KG MUCAPE/...RESIDUALLY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES/WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD KEEP THE HAIL RISK RELATIVELY ISOLATED/MARGINAL
IN NATURE.
..GUYER.. 10/07/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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