Oct 29, 2009 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Oct 29 01:03:20 UTC 2009
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20091029 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20091029 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20091029 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20091029 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 290100
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0800 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2009
   
   VALID 290100Z - 291200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS N CNTRL TX INTO NWRN TX...WRN
   OK...AND S CNTRL KS...
   
   ...SRN PLAINS AREA...
   
   A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NRN GULF COAST NWWD THROUGH NWRN TX
   WHERE IT INTERSECTS A DRYLINE THAT STRETCHES FROM THE ERN TX
   PANHANDLE SWD THROUGH ERN PORTIONS OF WRN TX. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
   FROM A SURFACE LOW IN WRN KS SWD THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE AND INTO
   THE TRANSPECOS OF SWRN TX. RICHER GULF MOISTURE CURRENTLY RESIDING
   ACROSS CNTRL AND S TX WILL ADVECT NWD OVERNIGHT ALONG A 50+ KT SLY
   LOW LEVEL JET. HOWEVER...SELY NEAR SURFACE TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THE
   GREATEST INCREASE IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NWRN TX AND
   SWRN OK LATER TONIGHT. THE ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO NWD DESTABILIZATION WITH TIME WITH AN AXIS OF
   1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE DEVELOPING THROUGH NWRN TX AND WRN OK
   OVERNIGHT.
   A ZONE OF DEEP ASCENT ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS DEVELOPED FROM WRN
   TX THROUGH THE ERN TX PANHANDLE IN ASSOCIATION FORCING WITHIN UPPER
   JET EXIT REGION. THIS ZONE OF ASCENT WILL SHIFT E AND NE
   OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY SPREADING INTO KS.
   
   STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN TX PANHANDLE ARE BASED
   AROUND 700 MB. HOWEVER...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT
   NWWD...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR NEAR SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP
   FROM NWRN TX THROUGH WRN OK AND S CNTRL KS OVERNIGHT.  PRIMARY
   CONVECTIVE MODE WILL LIKELY REMAIN LINEAR...GIVEN THAT STORM
   INITIATION WILL LIKELY STAY CONFINED TO THE ZONE OF STRONG FORCING
   ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT
   SUGGESTS SOME EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS ARE LIKELY.
   PRIMARY THREATS WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND
   HAIL...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
   
   ...CNTRL THROUGH SERN TX INTO WRN LA...
   
   THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE NWD ACROSS CNTRL AND
   SERN TX INTO LA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE 00Z RAOB DATA SHOW A CAP IN
   PLACE ACROSS N-CNTRL THROUGH S TX AND SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY
   CONTRIBUTE TO THIS WARMER LAYER ADVECTING NEWD TOWARD THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY WITH TIME. RADAR DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW SHALLOW CONVECTION
   DEVELOPING WITHIN THE BROAD WARM ADVECTION REGIME FROM SERN TX INTO
   SWRN LA. GIVEN THAT THE DEEPER FORCING WILL LIKELY REMAIN NW OF THIS
   REGION OVERNIGHT...IT WILL PROBABLY BE DIFFICULT FOR THE
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT TO MODIFY SUFFICIENTLY FOR DEEP CONVECTION
   TO DEVELOP. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PERSIST
   IN THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT AND WOULD SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR
   SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE THREAT
   IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL...WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES FOR THE
   OVERNIGHT.
   
   ..DIAL.. 10/29/2009
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z