SPC AC 180031
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0631 PM CST THU DEC 17 2009
VALID 180100Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SRN/WRN FL...
00Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A 1008 MB LOW NEAR BUOY 42002 IN THE WRN
GULF OF MEXICO AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING SWD TO THE CNTRL
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NRN BELIZE. FRONT THAT SETTLED SWD INTO SRN
FL DURING THE PAST 24-HRS WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NWD INTO CNTRL FL
WHILE A SECONDARY WRMFNT WAS MOVING NWD INTO THE CNTRL GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE FL KEYS.
STG TSTMS HAVE BEEN THRIVING ALONG THE SERN ATLC CST FROM SOUTH OF
VERO BEACH TO MIAMI BEACH FOR SVRL HRS. HERE...DEFAULT SPEED
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE E CST AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT /00Z
MLCAPE AT MFL AROUND 870 J PER KG/ CONTRIBUTED TO STORM DEVELOPMENT.
MODEST ENE LLVL FLOW VEERING QUICKLY TO SWLY IN THE MID-LVLS WAS
PROVIDING SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR BRIEF STORM
ORGANIZATION...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. A COUPLE OF
BRIEF WATERSPOUTS/TORNADOES AND/OR DMGG WIND GUSTS COULD YET OCCUR
OVER CSTL SERN FL THIS EVENING.
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE STG UPR SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CNTRL
GULF BASIN. TSTMS WERE ALREADY FORMING ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AND THE ACTIVITY SHOULD GROW UPSCALE INTO A SQLN LATER TONIGHT AS
PRIMARY FORCING ALOFT BECOMES COUPLED WITH THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT.
STORMS WILL BE LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE WRN FL BY 12Z.
HOWEVER...HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ISOLD TSTM
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ALONG THE RETREATING WRMFNT INTO SWRN FL/KEYS
LATER TONIGHT AMIDST MODEST DESTABILIZATION/INCREASING SHEAR.
THUS...WILL MAINTAIN LOW SVR PROBABILITIES FOR LATER TONIGHT ACROSS
THESE REGIONS...PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF A BRIEF WATERSPOUT/TORNADO
OR DMGG WIND GUST.
..RACY.. 12/18/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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