Nov 2, 2009 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Nov 2 17:15:42 UTC 2009
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20091102 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20091102 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability Legend Image
   SPC AC 021714
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1114 AM CST MON NOV 02 2009
   
   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   
   LARGE SCALE PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD...THOUGH A SMALL AREA
   OF FOCUSED DEEP ASCENT ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION WOULD
   OTHERWISE FAVOR A POTENTIAL ZONE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION.  NAM
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MN/IA/WI/IL EXHIBIT A SMALL
   AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IF LIFTING A PARCEL NEAR 700MB. 
   HOWEVER...LIGHTNING POTENTIAL WITH THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TOO LOW
   TO WARRANT A THUNDER OUTLOOK.
   
   A NARROW ZONE OF MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ALONG DIFFUSE
   TRAILING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SOUTH FL TUESDAY.  WEAK CONVERGENCE AND
   POOR LAPSE RATES SUGGEST PRIMARY THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
   WILL BE OVER WARMER WATERS...HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT A LONE STORM
   OVER LAND.  WILL KEEP CURRENT THUNDERSTORM FORECAST ACROSS THE SRN
   PENINSULA BUT OVERALL THREAT APPEARS QUITE LOW.
   
   ..DARROW.. 11/02/2009
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z