Nov 7, 2009 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Nov 7 17:17:42 UTC 2009
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20091107 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20091107 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability Legend Image
   SPC AC 071716
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1116 AM CST SAT NOV 07 2009
   
   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   BROAD BELT OF FAST WSWLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE FROM THE
   WRN CONUS INTO ERN CANADA...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SMALL-SCALE
   FEATURES PROGRESSING QUICKLY ENEWD.
   
   FARTHER S...A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE CROSSING THE SOUTHWEST
   U.S./MEXICO...WITH A RIDGE PREVAILING OVER THE ERN U.S. FROM THE
   LOWER GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE GULF/WRN ATLANTIC.  
   
   WITHIN THE ERN U.S. RIDGE...T.S. IDA IS PROGGED TO SHIFT NWD INTO
   THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
   
   SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED/OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
   ACROSS THE COASTAL PAC NW -- PARTICULARLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
   THE PERIOD AS MOIST SWLY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES.  
   
   MINIMAL DESTABILIZATION IS ALSO PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
   GULF...AND SHOULD EXPAND NWD INTO THE S CENTRAL U.S. AHEAD OF THE
   APPROACHING SRN STREAM TROUGH.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN
   SHOWERS AND A OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WRN
   GULF...EVENTUALLY SPREADING INTO TX AND COASTAL LA.  CONVECTION WILL
   ALSO INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN GULF AS IDA MOVES NWD...WITH
   A FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS
   SYSTEM POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE FL KEYS.  IN ALL AREAS
   HOWEVER...KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
   UNSUPPORTIVE OF APPRECIABLE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
   
   ..GOSS.. 11/07/2009
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z