Nov 8, 2009 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Nov 8 17:27:43 UTC 2009
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20091108 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20091108 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability Legend Image
   SPC AC 081725
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1125 AM CST SUN NOV 08 2009
   
   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   BROAD BELT OF WSWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WRN AND N
   CENTRAL U.S. AND INTO ERN CANADA...WITH SEVERAL SMALL-SCALE FEATURES
   PROGGED TO MOVE QUICKLY ENEWD THROUGH THE FAST FLOW FIELD.
   
   A WEAK SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   CONUS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH ONE OF THESE EMBEDDED UPPER SHORT-WAVE
   TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO TOWARD QUEBEC.  
   
   
   A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE PAC NW AS A SHORT-WAVE
   TROUGH MOVES INLAND S OF THE LARGER GULF OF AK FEATURE.
   
   THE OTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST REMAINS HURRICANE IDA...WHICH IS
   PROGGED TO CONTINUE NWD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE CENTRAL
   GULF COAST.  PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NHC
   REGARDING IDA.
   
   ...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
   MOISTENING/VERY WEAK DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS
   THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION -- PARTICULARLY DURING THE SECOND HALF
   OF THE PERIOD -- AS HURRICANE IDA SHIFTS NWD ACROSS THE GULF. 
   ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT LANDFALL WILL OCCUR AFTER THE END OF THE
   PERIOD.  WHILE A PORTION OF THE NERN QUADRANT OF THIS SYSTEM -- THE
   MOST KINEMATICALLY-FAVORABLE REGION FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL -- MAY
   REACH THE COAST VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
   SEVERE PROBABILITY ATTM.  HOWEVER...WITH SHOWERS AND
   OCCASIONAL/EMBEDDED LIGHTNING LIKELY TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL GULF
   COAST REGION...WILL MAINTAIN EXISTING THUNDER LINE.
   
   ...ELSEWHERE...
   SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS -- POSSIBLY ONGOING EARLY
   IN THE PERIOD -- SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...INVOF A
   WEAKENING FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION.  INSTABILITY
   SHOULD REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE POTENTIAL. 
   SHOWERS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ALSO PERSIST ACROSS THE
   COASTAL PAC NW...WHERE MOIST SWLY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES.
   
   ..GOSS.. 11/08/2009
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z