Nov 9, 2009 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Nov 9 17:28:48 UTC 2009
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20091109 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20091109 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability Legend Image
   SPC AC 091727
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1127 AM CST MON NOV 09 2009
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A COUPLE OF PERTURBATIONS...NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER SCALE
   TROUGH OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...ARE
   FORECAST TO PROGRESS INLAND ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES/NORTHERN
   U.S. INTERMOUNTAIN REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  MODELS SUGGEST
   THAT THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CANADIAN
   PRAIRIES TUESDAY...AS UPSTREAM IMPULSES CONTRIBUTE TO SHARPENING
   TROUGHING WEST OF THE PACIFIC COAST.  IN RESPONSE....DOWNSTREAM
   RIDGING APPEARS LIKELY TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION...AND ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.  SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THIS RIDGING MAY
   OCCUR...WITH A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING DOWNSTREAM
   ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.  GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT
   THIS LATTER FEATURE MAY GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE WITH TROUGHING IN A
   WEAKER BRANCH OF WESTERLIES ALONG THE GULF COAST...AND THE REMNANTS
   OF IDA...AS CURRENT PROMINENT UPPER RIDGE OVER PARTS OF THE
   SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN.
   
   ...EASTERN GULF COAST...
   WHILE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS OF THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED IDA APPEAR
   LIKELY TO MIGRATE INLAND OF GULF COASTAL AREAS...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
   HIGHER CONCERNING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.  GUIDANCE GENERALLY
   INDICATES THAT THIS FEATURE WILL APPROACH THE MOBILE BAY AREA BY 12Z
   TUESDAY...BEFORE TURNING EASTWARD ALONG A WEAK LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
   ZONE NOW PRESENT NEAR THE COAST.  WHILE THIS WILL PROBABLY BE
   ACCOMPANIED BY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS AND THE EVOLUTION
   OF LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADO
   OR DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IN CONVECTION...WEAK TO NEGLIGIBLE
   BOUNDARY LAYER BASED INSTABILITY STILL SEEMS LIKELY TO BE A LIMITING
   FACTOR WITH REGARD TO THE SEVERE THREAT.  INLAND ADVECTION OF
   LOWER/MID 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS CURRENTLY APPEARS A VERY LOW
   PROBABILITY...AND...UNLESS THIS OCCURS...EVEN THUNDERSTORM
   PROBABILITIES SEEM NEGLIGIBLE.  HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WEAK
   MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH
   COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR ISOLATED OR
   WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEST OF THE REMNANT
   CIRCULATION CENTER TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
   
   ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
   WEAK DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH MODEST ONSHORE FLOW BENEATH A
   COLD MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
   TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR COASTAL AREAS.
   
   ..KERR.. 11/09/2009
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z