Nov 10, 2009 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Nov 10 17:22:47 UTC 2009
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20091110 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20091110 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability Legend Image
   SPC AC 101721
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1121 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2009
   
   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MODELS INDICATE THAT THE PREVAILING SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL
   REMAIN LARGELY ZONAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  HOWEVER...WITHIN THIS
   REGIME...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
   WILL SPLIT OFF THE STRONGER BRANCH OF WESTERLIES...BEFORE DIGGING
   INTO TROUGHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WITHIN THE WEAKER SOUTHERN
   STREAM.  CONSOLIDATION OF SEVERAL IMPULSES...INCLUDING THE REMNANTS
   OF IDA...IS PROGGED TO EVENTUAL CONTRIBUTE TO A DEEPENING LOWER/MID
   LEVEL CYCLONE OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY THURSDAY.
   
   ...FLORIDA...
   WEAK TO MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION APPEARS POSSIBLE
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENINSULA PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE
   OF A WEAK SURFACE FRONT...AND THE ONSET OF MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
   WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH.  CAPE OF
   1000-1500 J/KG MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF FAIRLY VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...BUT
   WARM AND MOIST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COUPLED WITH WEAK TO MODEST
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR LIKELY WILL PRECLUDE AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR
   DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL.  
   
   HOWEVER...TORNADIC POTENTIAL IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN.  FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT LOW-LEVEL FLOW /NEAR OR BELOW 850 MB/
   ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KT COULD LINGER INTO/THROUGH WEDNESDAY
   AFTERNOON...WITHIN A PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHERLY BELT ACROSS THE
   PENINSULA...AS THE REMNANT SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH IDA MIGRATES
   SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  WHILE THIS WILL NOT YIELD
   PARTICULARLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL
   HODOGRAPHS WILL STILL BE SIZABLE IN THE PRESENCE OF A POSITIVELY
   BUOYANT BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70F.
    THUS...THE RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO MAY NOT BE
   COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN AND AROUND THE
   ORLANDO/MELBOURNE AREAS.
   
   ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...
   WEAK ONSHORE FLOW BENEATH A RATHER COLD MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL
   PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUPPORTIVE OF THE CONTINUING RISK FOR
   LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION.  LOW THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES MAY BE
   ENHANCED A BIT BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A DIGGING MID-LEVEL
   IMPULSE...WHICH APPEARS LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD COASTAL AREAS DURING
   THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
   
   ..KERR.. 11/10/2009
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z