Nov 11, 2009 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Nov 11 17:22:46 UTC 2009
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20091111 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20091111 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability Legend Image
   SPC AC 111721
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1121 AM CST WED NOV 11 2009
   
   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   CONSIDERABLE STRENGTHENING WITHIN A SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE
   PREVAILING SPLIT UPPER FLOW IS NOW UNDERWAY FROM PARTS OF THE
   SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE SOUTHWEST.  MODELS INDICATE
   THAT THIS JET WILL NOSE EASTWARD THROUGH PARTS OF THE ROCKIES AND
   CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE EXIT REGION OF A
   STRONGER NORTHERN BRANCH JET NOSES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...
   TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.  HOWEVER...THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
   FORECAST PERIOD...THESE DEVELOPMENTS APPEAR LIKELY TO HAVE LITTLE
   IMPACT ON THE DOWNSTREAM SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY
   FORMING OVER THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES.  GUIDANCE INDICATES
   THAT THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CUT-OFF FROM THE STRONGER
   WESTERLIES...WITH ONLY A GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION OFF THE COAST
   IN RESPONSE TO A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PIVOTING AROUND THE
   SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF ITS CIRCULATION CENTER.  AS A
   RESULT STABLE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED ACROSS MUCH OF
   THE NORTH CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S...WITH
   A SUBSTANTIVE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE SLOW TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A
   DEEPENING LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ADVANCING INTO THE
   PLAINS.
   
   ...SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST...
   WHILE THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS
   THE COUNTRY...CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DOES APPEAR
   POSSIBLE THURSDAY FROM PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO AT LEAST
   THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA.  THE WARM SECTOR OF AN OCCLUDING
   SURFACE CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY
   MAY DEVELOP WITHIN A ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION...ALONG A LOWER/MID
   TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE
   CYCLONE CENTER.
   
   ..KERR.. 11/11/2009
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z