Nov 12, 2009 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Nov 12 17:28:46 UTC 2009
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20091112 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20091112 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability Legend Image
   SPC AC 121726
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1126 AM CST THU NOV 12 2009
   
   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION THROUGH THE DAY TWO
   PERIOD AS STRONG MID/UPPER-JET STREAKS DIG EQUATOR-WARD ALONG THE W
   COAST...EFFECTIVELY CONTRIBUTING TO INTENSIFICATION OF BROAD TROUGH
   OVER THE WRN STATES.  DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFYING WRN U.S.
   TROUGH...OPENING MIDLEVEL WAVE WILL TRANSLATE ENEWD THROUGH THE
   N-CNTRL STATES...WHILE FARTHER E...DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE SHIFTS EWD
   ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY AND SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL INTO SRN PLAINS.  THE WRN EXTENSION
   OF THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND
   GREAT BASIN IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE 
   REGION. 
   
   ...FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO CNTRL PLAINS...
   
   SWD PROGRESSION OF COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS SHUNTED
   MT AIR MASS TO THE S OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.  AS A RESULT...A
   MODIFIED CP AIR MASS WILL RETURN NWD THROUGH THE WRN GULF BASIN
   THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE 50S OVER
   CNTRL/ERN OK TO LOWER/MID 60S ALONG THE TX COAST.  HOWEVER...GIVEN
   RELATIVELY WARM MIDLEVEL THERMAL PROFILES EXPECTED...NO APPRECIABLE
   CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR
   THROUGH THE DAY TWO PERIOD.
   
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
   INTENSIFYING LOW TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE WHERE INCREASED
   FORCING FOR ASCENT ACTS ON STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME PRECEDING
   AMPLIFYING WRN CONUS TROUGH.  NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
   
   ...PACIFIC NW COAST...
   
   SIGNIFICANT FORCING FOR ASCENT ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF DIGGING POLAR JET
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
   ISOLATED...LOW-TOPPED TSTMS WITHIN MOIST...POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.
   
   ..MEAD.. 11/12/2009
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z