Nov 13, 2009 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Nov 13 16:40:45 UTC 2009
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20091113 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20091113 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability Legend Image
   SPC AC 131639
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1039 AM CST FRI NOV 13 2009
   
   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   MID/HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAKS DIGGING EQUATOR-WARD THROUGH THE GREAT
   BASIN INTO LOWER CO VALLEY WILL SUPPORT TROUGH INTENSIFICATION AND
   EVENTUALLY LOW FORMATION OVER THE FOUR CORNER REGION DURING THE DAY
   TWO PERIOD.  ELSEWHERE...NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
   TRANSLATE NEWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO ONTARIO...WHILE
   FATHER E...DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN
   U.S. TROUGHS WILL PUSH EWD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND SWD
   THROUGH THE CNTRL INTO SRN PLAINS.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN ARC NWWD
   TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH WRN EXTENSION OF
   FEATURE SAGGING SEWD THROUGH THE LOWER CO VALLEY.
   
   ...FOUR CORNERS REGION...
   
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
   THROUGH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE AS INCREASED FORCING FOR
   ASCENT/HEIGHT FALLS ALONG CYCLONIC SIDE OF DIGGING JET STREAK ACTS
   ON STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.
   
   ...OK...
   
   PERSISTENT SLY/SWLY FLOW WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WILL SUPPORT
   THE NWD TRANSPORT OF A MODIFIED CP AIR MASS...ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO
   INCREASE THROUGH THE 50S THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
   CAPPED THROUGH THE DAY...BUT INCREASING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO THE
   N OF COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   PROGRESSIVELY DEEPENING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
   SUNDAY MORNING.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCAPE INCREASING TO
   AROUND 500 J/KG WITH SUFFICIENTLY COOL THERMAL PROFILES TO SUPPORT
   LIGHTNING DEVELOPMENT.
   
   ..MEAD.. 11/13/2009
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z