Nov 14, 2009 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Nov 14 18:45:49 UTC 2009
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20091114 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20091114 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability Legend Image
   SPC AC 141844
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1244 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2009
   
   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHICAL DESCRIPTOR
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED YET PROGRESSIVE THROUGH
   THE DAY TWO PERIOD WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING
   MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL TRANSLATE GENERALLY EWD FROM THE
   CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES INTO CNTRL/SRN PLAINS.  MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
   EVOLUTION OF THIS UPPER SYSTEM BECOME MORE APPARENT WITH TIME AS THE
   GFS SUGGESTS CLOSED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER KS/OK BY 16/12Z.  IN
   CONTRAST...THE NAM MAINTAINS A MORE POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
   CONFIGURATION WITH THE CLOSED CIRCULATION SITUATED OVER THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING.  THE GFS SOLUTION IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THAT
   OF THE 14/00Z ECMWF AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED FOR THIS FORECAST.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...WRN EXTENSION OF SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT INITIALLY
   ORIENTED IN E-W FASHION FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO SRN HIGH PLAINS
   WILL PIVOT CYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS BROAD SURFACE LOW
   DEVELOPS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO MID MS VALLEY.  ANY THREAT FOR
   STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUSED ALONG COLD
   FRONT FROM SERN OK/WRN AR INTO CNTRL TX SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO 
   NIGHT.
   
   ...SERN OK/WRN AR INTO CNTRL TX...
   
   THE RETURN OF A MODIFIED CP AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN
   PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY ONE AND TWO PERIODS IN ADVANCE OF SYNOPTIC
   COLD FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS EVENTUALLY INCREASING THROUGH THE 60S
   WITHIN SYSTEM WARM SECTOR.  HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD
   CLOUDS AND WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL EFFECTIVELY LIMIT MLCAPE TO
   GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.
   
   SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY PROGRESSING EWD THROUGH THE LOWER CO
   VALLEY AND NRN BAJA/GULF OF CA IS EXPECTED TO PRECEDE PRIMARY UPPER
   SYSTEM EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS SUNDAY.  FORCING FOR ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ARE
   EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   ALONG THE FRONT BY AFTERNOON FROM SERN OK INTO N-CNTRL TX.  STORMS
   SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP BOTH N AND S ALONG EWD-MOVING FRONTAL
   ZONE SUNDAY NIGHT WITHIN WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
   
   WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT /I.E. 45-60 KT
   THROUGH THE LOWEST 6 KM AGL/...THE ABSENCE OF A MORE ROBUST LLJ /AND
   RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/ IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE WEAK LAPSE RATES
   ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE
   WEATHER THREAT.  NONETHELESS...SETUP WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
   EPISODIC...EMBEDDED SUPERCELL AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF
   MAINLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO DURING THE
   AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME HOURS.
   
   ..MEAD.. 11/14/2009
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z