Nov 15, 2009 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Nov 15 16:24:48 UTC 2009
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20091115 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20091115 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability Legend Image
   SPC AC 151623
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1023 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2009
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD IS DEEP-LAYER
   CYCLONE WHICH WILL PROGRESS EWD FROM THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TOWARD THE
   MID/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION.  IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE FRONTAL
   WAVE WILL UNDERGO OCCLUSION THROUGH THE PERIOD NEAR THE CONFLUENCE
   OF THE OH AND MS RIVERS WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSHING EWD
   THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  
   
   ...MID/LOWER MS VALLEY SWWD ALONG THE TX COAST...
   
   INCREASINGLY SHORT WAVELENGTH BETWEEN CNTRL CONUS SYSTEM AND
   DOWNSTREAM CYCLONE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN ONLY A VERY
   NARROW WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT...OWING TO PERSISTENT
   RIDGING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE ERN GULF BASIN.  THIS WARM
   SECTOR WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A PARTIALLY MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR
   MASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER/MID 60S.  MOREOVER...LAPSE
   RATES WILL REMAIN QUITE WEAK...EFFECTIVELY LIMITING THE POTENTIAL
   FOR DESTABILIZATION.
   
   THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR PERSISTENT TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE
   ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT FROM THE TX COAST NEWD THROUGH MUCH OF LA INTO
   MS WHERE A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF
   WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.  FARTHER N...SPORADIC TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW WHERE MIDLEVEL COLD POOL
   /I.E. 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -24 TO -26 C/ WILL SUPPORT SOME WEAK
   DESTABILIZATION.  IN EITHER AREA...THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE
   WEATHER APPEARS QUITE LOW GIVEN THE LIMITED INSTABILITY.
   
   ..MEAD.. 11/15/2009
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z