SPC AC 171721
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2009
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT CUTOFF UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SRN MO WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NNEWD THROUGH ERN MO AND WRN IL IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WRN STATES. FARTHER WEST AN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE WRN STATES.
...CAROLINAS THROUGH OH VALLEY...
SHALLOW WEDGE OF COOL AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE CNTRL AND WRN CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST...A COASTAL BOUNDARY COULD MOVE INTO ERN NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING SLY 850 MB WINDS IN WAKE OF RETREATING RIDGE WILL
TRANSPORT RICHER MOISTURE NWWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND OH VALLEY
ABOVE STABLE LAYER AND BENEATH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALONG ERN
PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW. THIS PROCESS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN AXIS OF
MARGINAL MUCAPE. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE DAY
WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...COVERAGE WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.
..DIAL.. 11/17/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
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