Nov 17, 2009 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Nov 17 17:22:46 UTC 2009
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20091117 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20091117 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability Legend Image
   SPC AC 171721
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1121 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2009
   
   VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT CUTOFF UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SRN MO WILL
   LIFT SLOWLY NNEWD THROUGH ERN MO AND WRN IL IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM
   TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WRN STATES. FARTHER WEST AN UPPER
   TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE WRN STATES. 
   
   ...CAROLINAS THROUGH OH VALLEY...
   
   SHALLOW WEDGE OF COOL AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE
   OVER THE CNTRL AND WRN CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
   EAST...A COASTAL BOUNDARY COULD MOVE INTO ERN NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
   INCREASING SLY 850 MB WINDS IN WAKE OF RETREATING RIDGE WILL
   TRANSPORT RICHER MOISTURE NWWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND OH VALLEY
   ABOVE STABLE LAYER AND BENEATH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALONG ERN
   PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW. THIS PROCESS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN AXIS OF
   MARGINAL MUCAPE. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE DAY
   WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM THE CAROLINAS
   THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...COVERAGE WILL
   PROBABLY REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.
   
   ..DIAL.. 11/17/2009
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z