Nov 18, 2009 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Nov 18 17:34:43 UTC 2009
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20091118 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20091118 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability Legend Image
   SPC AC 181733
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1133 AM CST WED NOV 18 2009
   
   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT UPPER LOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL EJECT
   NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AS WRN U.S.
   UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
   OVER CA WILL MOVE INTO TX BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE AN
   OCCLUDED LOW WILL LIFT NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE TRAILING
   FRONT ADVANCES EWD INTO THE NERN STATES...MID ATLANTIC AND
   CAROLINAS. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT NWD
   THROUGH ERN NC AND SERN VA. FARTHER WEST A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY
   THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES.
   
   ...CNTRL AND S TX...
   
   PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WILL
   ADVECT NWWD THROUGH SRN TX AS SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES
   ESTABLISHED EAST OF LEE TROUGH. THIS MOISTURE WILL RETURN BENEATH
   MODEST 6.5-7 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT WILL ADVECT EWD AHEAD
   OF PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH RESULTING IN 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE OVER S
   AND S-CNTRL TX BY THURSDAY EVENING. FORCING AND DESTABILIZATION
   PROMOTED BY THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND S TX OVERNIGHT.
   STORMS MAY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...BUT IT APPEARS THAT EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SOME UPDRAFTS TO DEVELOP MODEST
   ROTATION. ISOLATED...SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY
   THE STRONGER STORMS.
   
   
   ...NC THROUGH MID ATLANTIC...
   
   SELY BOUNDARY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO
   THE MID ATLANTIC AS SURFACE RIDGE RETREATS TO OFF THE NERN U.S.
   COAST. HOWEVER...A SHALLOW WEDGE OF COOL AIR COULD STILL PERSIST
   ACROSS A PORTION OF THIS REGION...ESPECIALLY FROM CNTRL AND WRN NC
   AND VA. NEVERTHELESS...THE ADVECTION OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR
   WILL BENEATH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AN AXIS OF
   500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE FROM THE ERN HALF OF NC INTO ERN VA. PRIMARY
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN ZONE OF
   ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOSTLY NORTH OF
   RETREATING WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
   WARM SECTOR. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE STRONGER SHEAR WILL REMAIN
   NORTH OF THE MORE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WHICH SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
   SEVERE POTENTIAL.
   
   ..DIAL.. 11/18/2009
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z