Nov 20, 2009 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Nov 20 17:19:42 UTC 2009
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20091120 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20091120 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability Legend Image
   SPC AC 201718
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1118 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
   
   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...GULF COAST STATES...
   A UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL TEMPORARILY CLOSE-OFF OVER THE SRN PLAINS
   TONIGHT BEFORE OPENING AND BECOMING DEAMPLIFIED ENEWD INTO THE LOWER
   MS VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...STRONG
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
   OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS LA
   AND SRN MS. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG IN THE
   LOWER MS VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F AND
   LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD INITIALLY LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. AS
   THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ENEWD DURING THE OVERNIGHT
   PERIOD... INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD RAISE SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS SRN MS...SRN AL AND
   THE FL PANHANDLE INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S F. THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE
   POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE 06 TO 12Z
   TIMEFRAME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE COAST OF MS EWD INTO THE FL
   PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 55-65 KT
   RANGE WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND LOOPED HODOGRAPHS. IN SPITE OF
   RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY...THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
   FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS WITH A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 11/20/2009
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z