Nov 22, 2009 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Nov 22 17:29:42 UTC 2009
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20091122 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20091122 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability Legend Image
   SPC AC 221728
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1128 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
   
   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DOWNSTREAM OF A STRONG ZONAL UPPER JET OVER THE MID LATITUDE
   WESTERN/CENTRAL PACIFIC...A GENERALLY WEAKER SPLIT FLOW IS EXPECTED
   TO PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA
   AND WESTERN ATLANTIC.  SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
   REGIME APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
   FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS INCLUDES THE LINGERING REMNANTS OF A CLOSED
   LOW/TROUGH NOW LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...SHORT WAVE
   IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN A STREAM EXTENDING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL
   EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO/FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND A
   SIGNIFICANT POLAR TROUGH NOW DIGGING INTO/THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
   BASIN.  MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL EVOLVE INTO A
   CLOSED LOW/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK SURFACE
   CYCLOGENESIS AS IT MIGRATES EAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
   MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAKENING LEAD
   SYSTEM...BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
   MAY NOT SUPPORT A SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN MUCH NORTH OF DEEP
   SOUTH TEXAS/TEXAS COASTAL AREAS BY 12Z TUESDAY.
   
   ...SOUTHEAST...
   ALTHOUGH A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE NORTHEASTWARD
   ALONG OR JUST EAST OF SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...A TRAILING
   SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE
   NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SLOW MOVING OR
   QUASI-STATIONARY.  IN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENINSULA...MODELS SUGGEST THAT HEATING OF A
   MODESTLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF WEAK TO
   MODERATE CAPE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  COUPLED WITH A LINGERING
   WEAKNESS IN MID-LEVEL INHIBITION...THIS MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR AT
   LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH COULD PERSIST INTO
   EARLY EVENING...DESPITE WEAK MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
   MOTION.
   
   ...CENTRAL STATES...
   THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE LATE MONDAY/MONDAY
   NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD
   VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
   LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY.  UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL
   IMPULSES COULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL NEAR SOUTHERN
   TEXAS COASTAL AREAS.  HOWEVER ...WITH STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODEST...AT BEST...AND DISPLACED FROM STRONGER
   SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS STILL
   SEEMS NEGLIGIBLE.
   
   ..KERR.. 11/22/2009
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z