SPC AC 230532
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG UPR LOW OVER THE LWR MO VLY EARLY TUESDAY WILL TRANSLATE INTO
THE MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER IMPULSE DROPS SWD INTO THE NRN
PLNS. IN THE LWR LVLS...A LOW TIED TO THE FORMER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
FROM NWRN MO INTO WCNTRL IL BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AS A CDFNT SWEEPS EWD
THROUGH THE MIDWEST...OH/LWR MS VLYS AND THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO.
FARTHER S...AN OLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SITUATED FROM PARTS OF
PENINSULAR FL WWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO. A FRONTAL WAVE
WILL FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE WRN GULF BY TUESDAY NIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO SRN STREAM ENERGY EJECTING NEWD FROM CNTRL MEXICO.
...CORN BELT/UPR MS VLY...
UPR LOW/PV-ANOMALY SHOULD PEAK IN INTENSITY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
TUESDAY OVER PARTS OF IA/MO WITH UVV GRADUALLY WEAKENING DURING THE
NIGHT AS THE FEATURE BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD TOWARD THE UPR MS VLY.
FCST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT SUFFICIENT MOISTENING/STEEP H7-H5 LAPSE RATES
FOR UPRIGHT ELEVATED CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND
AFTN FROM CNTRL/SRN IA AND NRN MO NEWD INTO PARTS OF WRN IL. MEAGER
THERMAL BUOYANCY WILL PRECLUDE SVR TSTMS.
...S TX...
CDFNT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM NW-SE ACROSS S TX FROM MID-DAY INTO
THE LATE AFTN TUESDAY. PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WILL HAVE MOISTENED
BY THEN WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 60S...RESULTING IN MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG. BUOYANCY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY ROBUST OWING TO
POOR LLVL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED. FURTHERMORE... GIVEN THAT THE
PRIMARY CORE OF MID/UPR-LVL WIND FIELDS IS PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH N
TX...THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...LESS THAN 30 KTS. AS
SUCH...SVR TSTM PROBABILITIES SHOULD REMAIN LOW.
...CNTRL FL...
A FEW TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS CNTRL
FL...PRIMARILY TUESDAY AFTN/NIGHT. WHILE THE WARM MID-TROPOSPHERIC
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CAP OFF STORMS EARLY IN THE DAY...APCH OF
THE H5 TROUGH/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO COOLING. THIS
WILL MAKE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MORE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS LATER IN
THE DAY 2 PERIOD. NO SVR WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.
..RACY.. 11/23/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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