Nov 24, 2009 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Nov 24 16:20:44 UTC 2009
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20091124 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20091124 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability Legend Image
   SPC AC 241619
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1019 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009
   
   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER MO/IA WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AND EJECT NEWD
   OVER NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW AS AN UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER SRN AB/SK DIGS
   SEWD AND EVOLVES INTO ANOTHER CLOSED LOW OVER IL/IND BY EARLY
   THURSDAY.  THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A
   RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WITH NO APPRECIABLE RISK
   FOR THUNDERSTORMS.  THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/S FL
   DURING THE DAY AS A WEAK SRN STREAM WAVE CROSSES THE PENINSULA AND
   INTERACTS WITH A STALLED FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FL.
   
   ...CENTRAL/S FL DURING THE DAY...
   A SUBTROPICAL SPEED MAX NOW MOVING FROM NE MEXICO TO THE WRN GULF
   WILL CONTINUE EWD OVER CENTRAL FL DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.  A LARGE
   AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MID
   LEVEL WAVE AND WARM ADVECTION N OF A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL GULF.  A WEAK SURFACE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE AND MOVE
   EWD ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FL DURING THE DAY...ALONG WITH
   ONE OR MORE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS.  THOUGH LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY
   WILL BE RATHER MODEST OVER FL GIVEN WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...AN INCREASE
   IN LOW-MID LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
   EMBEDDED/ORGANIZED STORMS WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR ISOLATED
   DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.  STILL...THE MARGINAL
   INSTABILITY AND TYPICAL UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE INFLUENCE OF
   MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS SUGGEST THAT LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES
   ARE MOST APPROPRIATE AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..THOMPSON.. 11/24/2009
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z