SPC AC 210555
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2009
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SRN PLAINS/SRN OZARKS...
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DIG QUICKLY SSEWD INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AS A POWERFUL MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. WELL AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IN THE SRN PLAINS
AND OZARKS...MOISTURE WILL RETURN NWD ACROSS EAST TX INTO ERN OK AND
WRN AR AS A LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE
NOW BRINGING A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE ARKLATEX LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH ALONG WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD PROVIDE
PLENTY OF LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER A BROAD AREA FROM
THE UPPER TX AND LA COASTS NWD INTO SE KS AND SW MO. ETA-KF FORECAST
SOUNDINGS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 06Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME SHOW AN
INVERSION BELOW 850 MB SUGGESTING THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.
DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE EXIT
REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 850
TO 700 MB LAYER SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS EAST TX...WRN LA...SE OK AND SW AR. DUE
TO THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH THE ACTIVITY.
..BROYLES.. 12/21/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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