SPC AC 090724
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT SUN AUG 09 2009
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. IN GENERAL
HOWEVER...A COMPLEX SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS SLOWLY
EWD...AFFECTING AREAS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST REGION EWD
INTO THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND.
A SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE -- EXPECTED TO LIE FROM NEW ENGLAND WSWWD
ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS -- SHOULD SERVE
AS A CONTINUED FOCUS FOR ACTIVE/WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.
...SRN HIGH PLAINS REGION ENEWD ACROSS THE MID MS/TN/OH VALLEYS...
ONGOING/WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS A BROAD
SWATH FROM THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE MID SOUTH/OH
VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND. WHILE POCKETS OF DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR AWAY FROM ONGOING CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER...DEEP-LAYER WIND
FIELD ATOP MOST OF THE WARM SECTOR IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY
WEAK. THUS...WHILE CLUSTERS OF STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...THE OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN BOTH LIMITED AND HARD TO
PINPOINT GEOGRAPHICALLY ATTM. THUS...WILL INTRODUCE A BROAD SWATH
OF LOW /5%/ SEVERE PROBABILITY THIS FORECAST.
..GOSS.. 08/09/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
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