SPC AC 160745
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 AM CST WED DEC 16 2009
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL AND SRN FL...
...SYNOPSIS...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW LOCATED OVER NRN MEXICO HAS BECOME CUTOFF FROM
PRIMARY BELT OF WLYS. THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT EWD THROUGH THE NRN
GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE FL PENINSULA FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO
AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM WAVE. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS IMPULSE. THIS TROUGH WILL INDUCE A
MODEST SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF THAT SHOULD DEVELOP EWD ACROSS THE
NRN HALF OF THE PENINSULA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NWD
INTO THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA.
...FL PENINSULA...
SLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN EARLY FRIDAY ACROSS ERN GULF AND
FL PENINSULA IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE PENINSULA EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LIKELY NORTH OF WARM FRONT. THE FRONT
SHOULD DEVELOP NWD DURING THE DAY...BUT NWD ADVANCE OF THE MOISTER
WARM SECTOR COULD BE LIMITED BY ONGOING PRECIPITATION. BEST
DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH AND CNTRL FL
WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH OF WARM FRONT.
DEEP LAYER WIND AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THREAT WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WHERE SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS. WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF PRECIPITATION REMAIN POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS.
..DIAL.. 12/16/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
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