SPC AC 011939
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0139 PM CST FRI JAN 01 2010
VALID 012000Z - 021200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...S FL...
GENERAL TSTM LINE AND LOW SEVERE PROBABILITY LINES FOR WIND AND
TORNADO SHIFTED SWD TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS IN MOTION OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SERN STATES AND E/SEWD ADVANCEMENT OF
ATTENDANT PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND. OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR A MINIMAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS ON TRACK INVOF
AND S OF COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE OF S FL EARLY
THIS EVENING.
..PETERS.. 01/01/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST FRI JAN 01 2010/
...S FL THIS AFTERNOON...
A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY EWD OVER
N FL THIS AFTERNOON WHILE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PROGRESSES SEWD
TO THE SE FL COAST BY THIS EVENING. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...A
MOIST WARM SECTOR PERSISTS WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S GIVEN
DAYTIME HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON
MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG...THOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED BY RATHER POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THE ONGOING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INVOF AND
S OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING GUSTS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS IN A LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILE. THE OVERALL SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE
MODEST INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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