SPC AC 011948
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 PM CST MON FEB 01 2010
VALID 012000Z - 021200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
--- UPDATES ---
GEN TSTM OUTLOOK EXTENDED UP COASTLINE TOWARD SRN SC FOR
LATE-PERIOD/ELEVATED WAA REGIME...WITH MRGL THREAT FOR EMBEDDED
TSTMS. AS SFC LOW EJECTS NEWD ACROSS NRN FL...AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
STRENGTHENS IN CONVEYOR TO ITS N...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE
BOUNDARY LATER MAY STEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY TO DEEPEN BUOYANT LAYER INTO
THERMAL ZONES FAVORABLE FOR LIGHTNING. MUCAPE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER
300 J/KG...BASED ON ETA-KF AND WRF FCST SOUNDINGS.
..EDWARDS.. 02/01/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0954 AM CST MON FEB 01 2010/
THE SHALLOW SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE THRU THE FL STRAITS IS IN THE
PROCESS OF SLOWLY RETURNING NWD INTO SRN FL THIS AFTERNOON. VERY
MOIST SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH
TONIGHT RESULTING IN INCREASING AREAS OF PCPN. CHANCES OF EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONFINED TO S FL AND
THE KEYS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERE WILL BE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. OVERNIGHT WITH THE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW
OFF NERN FL COAST...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME INSTABILITY SHOULD
SPREAD NWD...PARTICULARLY ERN FL WITH A LOW END THUNDER THREAT.
HAVE DROPPED THE THUNDER THREAT OVER LA AS THE EARLIER LIGHTNING
OBSERVED JUST OFFSHORE HAS GENERALLY ENDED. IT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND A PLUME OF EML THAT ORIGINATED OVER CENTRAL
MEXICO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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